Violent Hagupit intensifies, stronger than ‘Pablo’

Typhoon Ruby (international codename Hagupit), already classified by the US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) as a super typhoon, continues to intensify and is now packing 195 kph winds and gusts of up to 230 kph, weather bureau PAGASA said Thursday.

PAGASA senior weather forecaster Chris Perez said Ruby is already stronger than Typhoon Pablo (Bopha), which hit the country last December 1-9, 2012.

Pablo had maximum sustained winds of 185 kph and gusts of up to 220 kph.

The JTWC said Hagupit was packing one-minute maximum sustained winds of 287 kilometers per hour (155 knots) and gusts of 351 kph (190 knots) as of 8 a.m. Thursday (Manila time).

The Hawaii-based weather bureau, however, said Hagupit’s one-minute winds could hit 315 kph (170 knots) and gusts of 379 kph (205 knots) by December 5, Friday, at 8 a.m. (Manila time).

The JTWC said Hagupit could maintain this wind strength until December 6, Saturday, at 8 a.m. (Manila time).

Super typhoon ”Yolanda” (international codename Haiyan) also had 315 kph winds in November last year.

PAGASA weather forecasters, however, said Ruby is too close to the Philippine landmass and may not reach “Yolanda” intensity winds.

“There is no indication na ma-ri-reach yung Yolanda. Malapit-lapit na siya, mukhang hindi mangyayari na aabutin niya yung strength ni Yolanda,” PAGASA acting administrator Vicente Malano said.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), meanwhile, has categorized Hagupit as a violent typhoon, the highest in the weather bureau’s classification of cyclones.

SIGNAL NO.1, SAMAR LANDFALL

Philippine state weather bureau PAGASA, meanwhile, raised public storm warning signal number 1 over Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Surigao del Norte, Siargao Island, Surigao del Sur, and Dinagat.

PAGASA said as of 11 a.m. Thursday, Hagupit was spotted 860 kilometers east of Surigao City.

The state weather bureau said Hagupit — – which was locally named ”Ruby” after it entered the Philippine area of responsibility today – was packing maximum sustained winds of 195 kph near the center and gusts of up to 230 kph.

It should be noted that PAGASA measures the wind strength of a typhoon at an average of 10 minutes.

PAGASA said Hagupit has slowed down and is now moving west northwest at 20 kph.

PAGASA said Ruby is expected to be 395 kms east southeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar on Friday morning.

On Saturday morning, Hagupit will be 30 kms northeast of Borongan, Eastern Samar.

Hagupit will make landfall over Samar area before noon Saturday.
By Sunday morning, it is expected to be at 20 kms south Southwest of Romblon.

According to PAGASA, an estimated rainfall amount of 7.5 – 20 millimeters per hour (heavy – intense) is expected within Hagupit’s 700- km diameter.

PAGASA said Hagupit was still too far to affect any part of the country.

HAGUPIT TRACK

The JTWC said Hagupit was maintaining a ”west-northwestward trajectory under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge.”

This means that Hagupit was heading towards the Philippines as its upward movement was being blocked by the subtropical ridge, a large belt of high pressure in the northern hemisphere that is referred to as an anti-cyclone system.

”Expect favorable sea surface temperatures, along with continually favorable upper-level conditions to allow the system to slowly further intensify,” the JTWC said.

In the JTWC model, Hagupit is seen heading slightly north and towards Luzon, avoiding a direct landfall over the Yolanda-hit region of Visayas.

The JTWC said both models provided by the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) and Global Forecast System (GFS) have been consistently showing Hagupit moving ”poleward” due to the weakening of the high pressure system.

The US weather bureau, however, said the models provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMF) and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (BFDL) show Hagupit continuing its westward track into central Philippines, indicating that the weakening of the high pressure system may not be pronounced enough to make the weather system re-curve and move towards southern Japan.

With the significant differences in the weather models, the JTWC said there is ”low confidence” in the accuracy of the extended forecast track of the Hagupit.

”There is low confidence in the extended forecast track due to the significant bifurcation in the models and the possibility of an alternate forecast scenario, with the system either significantly recurving east of the Philippines or tracking westward into the southern Philippines,” the JTWC said.

RED ALERT

The Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS), meanwhile, has raised a red alert for Hagupit.

It said the typhoon ”can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed and the affected population and their vulnerability.”

The GDACS said the population that could be affected by Category 1 (120 kph) wind speeds or higher is 800,000.

As of Wednesday evening, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council and PAGASA said more than 44 provinces have been declared as critical areas. These provinces are expected to experience heavy to intense rains and strong winds.